Why the visitor economy is crucial to growth in Gloucestershire

 

*GVA of tourism related industries1 by rural – urban LA classification, region and local authority1

Source: ONS, Annual Business Survey, data available on request: abs@ons.gov.uk

2000 – 2010

Coverage: England

 

 

 

GVA Millions

E06000025

South Gloucestershire

176.1

E07000078

Cheltenham

133.2

E07000079

Cotswold

88.2

E07000080

Forest of Dean

38.5

E07000081

Gloucester

110.4

E07000082

Stroud

129.3

E07000083

Tewkesbury

52.7

 

 

 

 

TOTAL (Inc S. Glos in indices)

552.3 (728.4)

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/rural-statistics-local-level-data-on-tourism-gva

According to GFirst LEP

“Productivity to increase at an annual average growth rate of 2% leading to a £14.5 billion economy in 2025 (from £11.5 billion in 2007) a growth of £3 billion in 18 years”

Visit England have projected that during the same period Visitor Economy will grow nationally by annualised 5%.  In Gloucestershire this would generate an additional economic activity derived from this sector rising from £728 million in 2010 to £1.5 billion by 2025 generating  14,300 jobs (DCMS Government Tourist Policy 2011 quotes a more conservative annualised 3.5% growth rate to 2020  N.B. from 2002-2010 GVA growth rates of tourism related industries in Gloucester averaged at 7.9% per annum)

 

Using the same projections GVA generated by tourism in the City of Gloucester would grow from £110.4 million to £229.5 million

In 2013, the direct industry effect generated around £58bn of Gross Value Added

(GVA) or about 4.1 per cent of (expected) UK GDP. Combined with the ‘tourism

industry’ effect the contribution was just under £127bn in GVA, or 9.0 per cent of UK

GDP. In total, including all direct, indirect, and induced effects, the contribution to the

UK economy was £161bn or 11.4 per cent of UK GDP.

 Annualised growth rates % over previous year

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

South Gloucestershire

3.9

9.4

9.1

23.5

-1.3

-18.0

29.3

-18.4

-7.6

Cheltenham

18.1

11.7

13.7

1.2

46.1

-34.1

-31.6

1.3

24.0

Cotswold

13.6

14.2

35.2

-7.5

-4.3

26.3

-40.2

-3.8

10.6

Forest of Dean

1.1

4.9

39.1

-7.5

9.3

20.5

-38.7

-19.6

52.7

Gloucester

9.7

15.9

17.9

1.6

11.2

19.5

-25.2

5.6

15.3

Stroud

3.5

19.7

32.0

-10.7

-3.9

53.6

-41.5

-20.8

131.3

Tewkesbury

14.9

5.6

20.6

12.3

0.6

25.5

-32.6

-24.0

10.2

Source: ONS, Annual Business Survey, data available on request: abs@ons.gov.uk

*GVA is the value of the sector’s output minus inputs bought from other sectors and taxes and subsidies.

Excerpts from DCMS Government Tourist Policy 2011

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/78416/Government2_Tourism_Policy_2011.pdf

 

Forecast Growth in Sectorial GVA 2010-2020

 

Obviously these projected growth rates are averages across all parts of the country, so

it’s striking that some parts of UK visitor economy are already exceeding these figures

substantially. For example Welcome To Yorkshire recorded 6.6% increases in tourism

spend during 2008, and 10% growth in visitor numbers in 2009 too.  In the current

economic climate, with growth an essential element of the Government’s strategy to

repair the national balance sheet, these performances make the tourism sector a

particularly important part of the UK economy.

 

Tourism’s Potential For Growth

 

The tourism industry has the potential to become one of the fastest growing sectors of

our economy. But creating – and sustaining – these higher rates of wealth and job

creation won’t just happen automatically: it will need plenty of hard work and

entrepreneurialism from the sector itself, and help from the Government to remove the

structural problems and blockages which might slow the industry down

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