|
||||||
|
|
|
GVA Millions |
||||
|
E06000025 |
South Gloucestershire |
176.1 |
||||
|
E07000078 |
Cheltenham |
133.2 |
||||
|
E07000079 |
Cotswold |
88.2 |
||||
|
E07000080 |
Forest of Dean |
38.5 |
||||
|
E07000081 |
Gloucester |
110.4 |
||||
|
E07000082 |
Stroud |
129.3 |
||||
|
E07000083 |
Tewkesbury |
52.7 |
||||
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
TOTAL (Inc S. Glos in indices) |
552.3 (728.4) |
||||
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/rural-statistics-local-level-data-on-tourism-gva
According to GFirst LEP
“Productivity to increase at an annual average growth rate of 2% leading to a £14.5 billion economy in 2025 (from £11.5 billion in 2007) a growth of £3 billion in 18 years”
Visit England have projected that during the same period Visitor Economy will grow nationally by annualised 5%. In Gloucestershire this would generate an additional economic activity derived from this sector rising from £728 million in 2010 to £1.5 billion by 2025 generating 14,300 jobs (DCMS Government Tourist Policy 2011 quotes a more conservative annualised 3.5% growth rate to 2020 N.B. from 2002-2010 GVA growth rates of tourism related industries in Gloucester averaged at 7.9% per annum)
Using the same projections GVA generated by tourism in the City of Gloucester would grow from £110.4 million to £229.5 million
In 2013, the direct industry effect generated around £58bn of Gross Value Added
(GVA) or about 4.1 per cent of (expected) UK GDP. Combined with the ‘tourism
industry’ effect the contribution was just under £127bn in GVA, or 9.0 per cent of UK
GDP. In total, including all direct, indirect, and induced effects, the contribution to the
UK economy was £161bn or 11.4 per cent of UK GDP.
Annualised growth rates % over previous year
|
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
South Gloucestershire |
3.9 |
9.4 |
9.1 |
23.5 |
-1.3 |
-18.0 |
29.3 |
-18.4 |
-7.6 |
|
Cheltenham |
18.1 |
11.7 |
13.7 |
1.2 |
46.1 |
-34.1 |
-31.6 |
1.3 |
24.0 |
|
Cotswold |
13.6 |
14.2 |
35.2 |
-7.5 |
-4.3 |
26.3 |
-40.2 |
-3.8 |
10.6 |
|
Forest of Dean |
1.1 |
4.9 |
39.1 |
-7.5 |
9.3 |
20.5 |
-38.7 |
-19.6 |
52.7 |
|
Gloucester |
9.7 |
15.9 |
17.9 |
1.6 |
11.2 |
19.5 |
-25.2 |
5.6 |
15.3 |
|
Stroud |
3.5 |
19.7 |
32.0 |
-10.7 |
-3.9 |
53.6 |
-41.5 |
-20.8 |
131.3 |
|
Tewkesbury |
14.9 |
5.6 |
20.6 |
12.3 |
0.6 |
25.5 |
-32.6 |
-24.0 |
10.2 |
Source: ONS, Annual Business Survey, data available on request: abs@ons.gov.uk
*GVA is the value of the sector’s output minus inputs bought from other sectors and taxes and subsidies.
Excerpts from DCMS Government Tourist Policy 2011
Forecast Growth in Sectorial GVA 2010-2020
Obviously these projected growth rates are averages across all parts of the country, so
it’s striking that some parts of UK visitor economy are already exceeding these figures
substantially. For example Welcome To Yorkshire recorded 6.6% increases in tourism
spend during 2008, and 10% growth in visitor numbers in 2009 too. In the current
economic climate, with growth an essential element of the Government’s strategy to
repair the national balance sheet, these performances make the tourism sector a
particularly important part of the UK economy.
Tourism’s Potential For Growth
The tourism industry has the potential to become one of the fastest growing sectors of
our economy. But creating – and sustaining – these higher rates of wealth and job
creation won’t just happen automatically: it will need plenty of hard work and
entrepreneurialism from the sector itself, and help from the Government to remove the
structural problems and blockages which might slow the industry down
Jason I J Smith 